Disturbing reports abound at the JCPA Daily Alert today.
The Intifada Will Resume in the Fall - Alex Fishman
(Yediot Ahronot-Hebrew, 1Apr05)
Right after the Gaza disengagement, according to military assessments, the cessation of terrorist attacks will end.
The theater of operations will be Judea and Samaria.
The threat will entail attacks on major roads, military camps, and settlements.
The main threat will come from mortar and Kassam rocket attacks on Route 6 (Trans-Israel Highway) and on the cities of the coastal plain.
The terrorist organizations have started to order rockets, while Israeli security services unite in an attempt to block the smuggling.
Whether Israel's security services will block the smuggling of rockets or not will make all the difference between a political settlement or a war.
The IDF Central Command is already prepared for the next round of armed conflict with the Palestinians.
The JPost is a little more optimistic. They figure it'll last until the end of the year. At best.
IDF: Relative calm at least until after pullout
The relative calm in the region will continue at least until after the implementation of the disengagement plan this summer, a senior officer in the IDF Intelligence Directorate estimated on Thursday.
The source, according to Army Radio, said that there is a high probability that the terror groups would refrain from carrying out attacks until the end of 2005 if Israel abides by its commitments to PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
And what about after that? Because
Abu Mazen is losing strength and stamina
By Arnon Regular (Ha'aretz)
Almost three months after taking office, it has become clear that Abbas' influence over the armed men, the security services and the leaders of Fatah's institutions is virtually nonexistent. The gap between his exalted international standing and his ability to impose his authority at home is growing, and it is not clear what will remain of his promises to reform the PA and provide personal security to ordinary Palestinians. His resignation threat during Monday's session of the Fatah Revolutionary Council underscored his growing distress, and recalled his serial resignation threats - which were eventually carried out - during his brief stint as Arafat's prime minister. Then, his excuse was that Arafat was undermining him. Today, the key problem is his inability to forge political alliances and to win the allegiance of the heads of the security services and of Fatah's younger generation.
Ze'ev Schiff seems to agree but then comes to this idiotic conclusion.
Israel is asking itself how to respond. The internal argument here indicates that Israel is also standing in place. Its hesitation is reminiscent of the mistakes made after the Oslo Accords. The question at the moment is not how to pressure Abu Mazen, but how to strengthen him in spite of all the failures in the field. It is already clear that in the process taking place at present, we will find a stronger Hamas further down the road.
And more cheer from Caroline Glick.
But developments within the PA this week indicate that both Israel and the US have been horribly wrong in their decision to accept Abbas. As was the case with Arafat, for many it is unclear whether or not Abbas wishes to or is capable of reining in terrorists, and it is equally unclear that the question is beside the point. At the same time, in contrast to Arafat, because they have placed so much stress on Abbas's legitimacy, both the Bush administration and the Israeli government are clearly averse to mentioning that there is a serious problem with what has been happening in the PA since he took over. Their aversion is increased against the backdrop of Sharon's proposed evacuation of Gaza and northern Samaria and the effective establishment of a Palestinian state with provisional borders in its wake.
Well at least the sun is out today. That's something.