(some dark and stormy thoughts on erev yom ha'atzmaut)
On Yom HaZikaron especially, as they were mourning their fallen heroes, that's a phrase that could be expected to resonate strongly with the Israeli population. So of course Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz made it a point to use it to push the disengagement agenda yesterday.
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz today said that Israel's security will improve after it withdraws from the Gaza Strip this summer.
"I think our security situation the day after the evacuation will improve over time," Mofaz said on the occasion of Memorial Day. "I also hope the number of civilian and military casualties will diminish to a minimum. This has to be looked at as a process, and not as a point in time immediately after the evacuation."
Leaving Gaza will afford Israel greater security "at a much lower cost," Mofaz said.
This is a marketing spiel that's reaped rich rewards for Sharon's program in the past. It's designed to bypass the rational defenses of the people it targets and burrow straight into their gut. But like most ad campaigns, it's long on shtick and short on substance. And if you pick it apart, you can see that it's packed full of wiggle room.
He "thinks" the security situation will improve. He "hopes" the casualties will diminish. (Don't we all?) But don't expect these results "immediately." It's a "process." That means that if the casualties multiply in the period "immediately" after the withdrawal, not to worry. Eventually the "process" will bring the numbers down. He thinks.
The last line is a complete throw-away. "Greater security" -- "at a much lower cost!" You can't afford to pass up this exciting offer! Sounds like he's selling pampers.
All this might be beside the point if it weren't for the fact that there's a lot of evidence to the contrary. This is stuff no one wants to hear. But they should.
IDF sources predict that immediately after the disengagement, the ceasefire is expected to end with terrorist attacks in and from Judea and Samaria. Among the threats are mortar and Kassam rockets on Israel's new toll-way Highway 6, as well as other areas in the coastal plain and the Afula area. The "regular" ambush attacks on roads, as well as attacks on army bases and towns in Judea and Samaria, are also expected.
The IDF Central Command is already preparing for the next round of armed conflict, correspondent Alex Fishman writes. It is assumed that it will begin in September. The preparations are mainly in the form of trying to stop the massive weapons smuggling from Egypt into Gaza, and from there to Judea/Samaria.
That was over a month ago. They haven't had much luck, as far as I can tell. Fewer Israeli casualties, as much as I'd love to see it under any circumstances, isn't something I'd count on disengagement delivering.
