With Ariel Sharon in "serious but stable" condition in Ein Kerem, attention is naturally turning to Israel's political scene and speculation abounds as to what will happen now that Sharon's role in that scene appears to have reached its end. Daniel Pipes' predictions reflect my own initial gut feeling, but there may be some surprises in store. Omri's put together an impressive synopsis of the situation and comes to some very different conclusions.
IMRA published this Israel Radio poll (also cited in Pipes' article), which was taken before Sharon's stroke and indicates a dearth of interest in the Kadima party without Sharon. Whether that response will be borne out now that the premise is no longer theoretical remains to be seen.
One thing is clear. Ehud ("we are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies") Olmert is no Arik Sharon. He doesn't command the public trust and, in the interest of furthering his own career, he's allowed himself to be eclipsed by Sharon to a near vanishing point. How he'll emerge from this crisis is anyone's guess.
